The Exodus of the Values Voter

This year the conservatives blew themselves apart. I will say that as a staunch moderate, this was one of the best things I have seen in awhile. Neo-conservatives and Militarists have lamented the fragmenting of their party, democrats have crowed with glee as if they had actually done anything to punch a hole in the rival party, and news periodicals are running around like so many Chicken Littles declaring the sky is falling in their neo-yellow-journalistic fashion. I admit that part of me misses the old conservative party (they were a fun lot of straw-men), and who knows, perhaps this year is nothing more than a minor hiccup. We may still see the Grand Old Party pull itself together under some new leader flying an old banner. I hope not, but I don't know.

Perhaps the most interesting group that has undermined the Republican Party has been the evangelical Christian vote. Once a sure thing for the Republicans, it is now becoming either an ignored or hard-won vote. So many of my friends who I considered dyed in the wool Christian Republicans are telling me that they voted for Obama in the primaries. Also, during many of the primaries, those who consider themselves value voters and voted Republican evenly split among the leading candidates. The vote is therefore no longer up for grabs so much as the voters. It is not a cohesive voting block like it was even just a few years ago when Bush was running for a second term.

One of the oddest and most frustrating things is the mainstream media's asinine and intractable stance on viewing this group of people as they did only a few years ago despite being faced with facts. One example of this was when those poll numbers showed candidates Romney, Huckabee, and McCain were pretty evenly split in picking up the Conservative Christian vote. The numbers could not have varied more than a point each (and then one has to factor in that there were probably margins of errors at play as well). While this was running, the media talked of the Evangelical voters as if they were all going out in droves to vote for Huckabee (the evangelical vote). Another key thing to look at are the results from New Hampshire, a staunchly un-evangelical state. Huckabee came in third, but with much higher numbers than expected and even eclipsed the numbers of those who consider themselves Conservative Christians. How can a group of people who are supposed to report the facts, have so obviously or intentionally missed these facts?

The answer is that most people do not know how Christians really think. It is true that the evangelical voters have been on cruise control for far, far too long. But now that there is a sea-change, why are we unwilling to adapt our understanding of this group to the change?

Ironically, it was Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama who best tapped into the change that was sweeping across the demographic. Now, I am not saying these two came anywhere near one another where policy was concerned. However, both reached beyond the cliches of their party for the most part.

I will leave Mr. Obama alone for the moment, and focus more on Mr. Huckabee. I admit to being an early supporter of Mike Huckabee. As he progressed, I found him a less and less desirable option for president. (I disagreed with certain views about gun control, taxation, military budget, as well as other issues.) However, I agreed with him fully about how one's faith (regardless of what that is) should play an undeniable part of one's leadership. His faith got him into trouble with the more unsavory members of his party. (How dare he raise taxes to help the poor in his state. How dare he offer college tuition for the children of illegal immigrants. How dare he put his faith ahead of his party.) Perhaps Mr. Huckabee is to be more of a prophet than a president. God uses unlikely people to speak messages. Huckabee voiced the growing concern among evangelicals about issues such as the environment and poverty. (The main people within the Republican party who are looking at environmental issues are the evangelicals.)

This year is the Democrats to lose. As Democratic strategist James Carville put it, "The good news for the Democrats is that the only way we can lose this election is if we talk ourselves out of it; and the good news for the Republicans is that we just may be able to do it." The reason for democratic ascendency and evangelical discontent is in large part due to the failure of Mr. Bush.* Neo-cons and Militarists hold tightly to the old regime, while the Conservative Christians strike out on their own. I do not know how history will look back on this election or if it will acknowledge this exodus from a party, but it would be wise for us to rethink our positions just as this group has. They have proven that it is better for there to be thoughtful change rather than foolish uniformity. The Republican party may have split apart at the seems, but it will be interesting to see what comes next.


* It should be noted that Mr. Bush has stated that he is an Evangelical Republican as well, and yet he does not rank too high amongst the Christians with whom I have talked.